Our friend at Thralled posts on a very possible scenario in Iraq if the US just withdrawals (which I highly doubt it will be part of the James Baker list of proposals).
Ideally, we'd like to see a stable democracy grow in Iraq but if the forces of Iran and Saudi Arabian backed terrorism can't be contained, should the US just let them pump Petrodollars into that country and see what happens? Neither winner would bring a decent outcome but perhaps it could be a way to draw the two countries into a long and expensive war that diverts their attention from Israel and the West. After years of carnage, the US, EU, UN or all of the above could step in and see if Iraq would then be ready for democracy and peace.
What do you think?
Posted by Andre at December 6, 2006 10:03 PMYeah, because that worked so well in 1980?
A protracted internicene war would likely result in even more finger-pointed at the West (remember, Iranians and Iraqis had stopped slaughtering each other before we invaded), create a stronger vortex for religious fanaticism, and lead to the elevation of a new Iraqi strongman-- maybe al-Sadr himself-- who would be a thorn in our side for years to come.
Don't sign me up.
Posted by: sagar at December 7, 2006 09:27 PMIt'll be pretty darned easy to get rolling, after all, the only people Arabs hate more than Jews are other Arabs. They have no good conflict resolution mechanism, every disagreement leads to an endless blood feud.
Posted by: abelard at December 10, 2006 10:14 PMMichael Savage pointed out that Sunnis and Shiites don't kill each other in the US or in other civilized countries.
So is this really a tribal conflict or just the work of religious fanatism thru vehicles such as the local brainwashing media and fiery imams all funded by Saudis/Iran?
As long as the oil flows and the power structure is the same I don't know that we can change things dramatically towards democracy. Maybe another 8 year war would give the West the break it needs to :
- Formulate a new approach
- Develop technologies to curb oil dependency
- Focus on internal issues and curb military spending